
Jannik Sinner booked his place in the Australian Open fourth round with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win over Andrey Rublev on Saturday night. The world No 2 dropped the opening set but raised his level in the second, breaking Rublev's serve twice in the third game of the set to take control of the match.
The opening set
Rublev started the match at a higher tempo than Sinner. The Russian won 12 of the first 16 points on his own serve and broke Sinner in the fifth game with a forehand down the line that the Italian could only half-volley into the net. Rublev closed out the set on his third set point with a service winner.
The first set lasted 38 minutes. Sinner's first-serve percentage was 58; his forehand depth was two feet shorter than his season average.
The tactical adjustment
Sinner adjusted his court position in the second set, standing three feet behind the baseline on Rublev's second serves. The change gave him more time on the backhand side and allowed him to redirect Rublev's pace back into the corners. The result was four breaks of serve in the next three sets.
The fourth set
The fourth set was the closest of the match. Rublev led 3-1 before Sinner won five games in a row to take it 6-4. The Italian won 18 of his 22 first-serve points in the set, and Rublev's frustration showed in three double faults in the seventh game.
He's the best player in the world when he has time. I needed to take that time away from him in the first set, but I couldn't sustain it.
- Andrey Rublev
THE NUMBERS
Sinner finished with 36 winners and 18 unforced errors. Rublev had 28 winners and 31 unforced errors. Sinner's first-serve percentage was 71, up from 58 in the opening set.
The fourth-round date
Sinner will face the winner of the late-night match between Alex de Minaur and Holger Rune in the fourth round. The match is scheduled for Monday, with the winner advancing to the quarter-finals to face either Novak Djokovic or Taylor Fritz.
Sinner is now on track for a potential semi-final meeting with Carlos Alcaraz, who plays his third-round match on Sunday. The two met in the final of the 2024 Australian Open, with Alcaraz winning in five sets.
Editor's verdict
Sinner is through, but he has work to do. The depth on his groundstrokes - the same issue that cost him the opening set - has been a recurring theme in the first three rounds. If he can find it for four sets instead of three, he will be very hard to beat. If he cannot, the back end of the draw is full of players who can exploit it.